Sunday, January 08, 2012

Coating of Snow Or Simply Light Rain Possible Tomorrow Evening?

A weak low pressure center will work off of the Carolinas tomorrow evening, spreading some light precipitation northward into the Mid Atlantic after about 4 or 5 PM. There's some question about how far north that precipitation spreads but a period of light rain and/or snow will move into South Jersey and Delaware at minimum...the question is how far north that system gets.   The European computer model has been the most aggressive in bringing precipitation into Philly and even into the northern suburbs as the low pressure center depiction on it is a bit stronger than the other models.     If the Euro depiction is right light snow will coat into the Philadelphia metro, with a coating to an inch accumulating across South Jersey and Delaware away from the Shore.

The NAM has been inching farther north and brings some precipitation into Delaware and South Jersey.  It along with the GFS generally keep measurable precipitation out of Philadelphia as of late this afternoon.    The NAM suggests that the vast majority of the precipitation that falls will be light rain.   The NAM is also the weaker of the three various models with this system and results in a slightly milder outcome for the storm.

Right now, the potential for a coating to an inch or snow falling in/around interior South Jersey and Delaware (generally Kent & New Castle Counties) seems like a reasonable call.   We could see a coating into Philadelphia if we get a slightly more robust solution and everything breaks right for us.  In terms of timing, precipitation is possible after 4 or 5 PM spreading in from the south, with the "best" chance of anything moving through Philadelphia during Monday evening...just after rush hour.

This isn't a big storm by any stretch -- it's a minor system -- but it could drop a coating or an inch in spots.  We'll keep an eye on it through tomorrow.