Saturday, January 28, 2012

Forecast for Sunday, January 29, 2012

Much of Sunday Morning will be sunny. Temperatures will climb nicely after 9 a.m. with temperatures rising into the forties by early afternoon. Clouds will begin to increase throughout the afternoon. A strong cold front is expected to approach by Sunday Evening and pass through Sunday Night into very early on Monday.

This cold front could cause hazardous travel to develop on Sunday Night into early Monday, especially north and west of Philadelphia. Scattered, squally showers will be associated with the front. While initially the showers will either be a mix of rain and snow or rain…colder air will be advecting in and dragged to the surface by the showers. The result will be a transition to snow as the dominant precipitation type. The transition to snow will be slower to occur closer to the coastline. In addition, the precipitation may be more widespread in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. All areas should dip below freezing by morning, so even areas that do not see all snow will have to contend with patches of black ice. As the cold front moves through, winds may gust past 40 MPH. With the snow and wind, it may look rather dramatic for a few hours for some in parts of the area. Otherwise, even if you are just seeing the wind gusts...these could take down some branches and make driving difficult. Visibility could be reduced to less than half mile if there are heavy snow showers and gusty winds. In areas that see mostly snow...scattered coatings are possible. In the far northern suburbs, a narrow and highly localized band of one to two inches of new snow accumulation cannot be ruled out.

We quickly see a return to sunshine on Monday Morning with temperatures rising through the thirties by late afternoon. We may not see much of a drop on Monday Evening as clouds move in ahead of a warm front. The models do not indicate much in the way of showers with the front. However, some fog or drizzle cannot be ruled out. We will have to monitor this warm front for potential freezing drizzle in the normally colder locations.

On Tuesday, yet again it may be a difficult temperature forecast with a bust potential existing. South and East of Philadelphia will have the greatest potential to enter the warm sector. Philadelphia struggled with the previous warm front, but I am optimistic for now that at least later in the day…Philadelphia can rise through the mid-fifties.
On Wednesday, with the front expected to clear much of the area (at least at this point)…temperatures may rise past 60 degrees in the city.

Considerable uncertainty exists for the remainder of the extended forecast. A cold front passes through on Wednesday Night and then questions exist about whether it will pass through or put on the breaks. This has significant sky cover, temperature, and precipitation type of implications.