Tuesday, January 24, 2012

January's Theme Is Volatility

We spoke of the roller coaster that has been January last week and yes, the pattern has continued over the past seven days with 50's sandwiching a cold and snowy Saturday and just plain cold Sunday.   January is shaping up as a yo-yo type of month...although this week's coolest weather in general probably was what we experienced on Monday morning.   We should generally be mild through Friday before we begin another pendulum swing back towards the colder.

Thursday features a storm system moving in from the southwest, with light showers starting up in the morning hours before becoming a steadier rain later in the day and in the overnight hours.  Those light showers may start in the form of sleet or perhaps light snow over the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos IF they move in early enough in the day Thursday...but with milder air quickly moving in aloft and at the surface any frozen precipitation should transition over to rain in short order.   This storm system will take a mild track for the region as low pressure generally will track up I-81 and the Appalachians, which puts us firmly in the warm sector...and rainy sector.

 Rain becomes steady by Thursday evening, perhaps heavy at times early Friday before the front crosses the region.  Temperatures will be on the rise on Thursday night and Friday morning into the 50's, perhaps even 60 degrees ahead of the front for South Jersey and Delaware.  With another day of additional sunshine prior to this storm system, we should lose any last bits and pittances of snow that are still left in your yard.  However, this storm system will bring a good deal of rain -- an inch or two seems to be a good bet as this moves through, perhaps with some gusty winds and a rumble of thunder across Delaware.

After the front crosses the region on Friday, cooler but not terribly cold air moves in for Saturday...however, a second cold front pushes down from Canada on Sunday morning, crossing the region and then intensifying in the Atlantic.  Both the GFS and Euro show the front developing low pressure on it as it hits the coastline...with snow showers accompanying the frontal passage and then possibly being enhanced as the system moves northeast and strengthens.  At this point, we're not talking about major snowfall but Sunday has the appearance of a blustery, chilled day with snow showers and flurries around.  

Seasonably cold but nothing too chilly will linger in the wake of this front, with another storm system for the middle of next week looking to bring...you guessed it...more rain and potentially milder temperatures.