Saturday's storm has trended ever-so-milder in the computer guidance, particularly in the middle levels of the atmosphere. This storm is not an easy one to nail down on specifics because of the hint...and in the GFS and NAM it's a rather loud hint...of icy travel in parts of the region on Saturday morning. For those in South Jersey -- generally south of Route 70 and east of Route 295 -- going to be tough to get much in the way of snow outside of a coating to an inch on the front end. The transition to rain should be a relatively quick one...and probably will take place before daybreak in most of South Jersey. However, that transition to rain might be accompanied by a period of icy rain or sleet.
The storm is still positioned to start between 1 and 4 AM from west to east -- that really hasn't changed. Precipitation is moving through Ohio and will shoot into Pennsylvania later this evening, hitting Philadelphia after midnight.
First, the Euro...which is painting a snowier and less icy picture than rest of the models. The model is showing more snow because it is bringing more moisture, having it fall heavier, and is just a smidge colder at the surface and aloft. The result is a snowier solution for most of the region. Those generally above 295 and in Pennsylvania would pick up a few inches of snow -- generally on the order of 2-5", with some 3-6" totals across the Poconos and upper portions of the Lehigh Valley. Even the city, on the Euro side of the fence, stands to pick up 3" or so of snow. This is the best case scenario...not only for snow starved but also for those who aren't fans of sleet and freezing rain.