Sunday, February 12, 2012

A Couple Shots Of Precipitation Ahead

After today's shot of cold and tomorrow's lingering chill, a return to normalcy in our winter pattern awaits us.  Temperatures will moderate a fair bit over the remainder of the week and will average out to a couple of degrees above average after Monday's near 40 degree high.

Two storm weak, one a bit stronger...will move through the region over the next several days.  The first of these two systems is the weaker one and will traverse through the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday, spreading some light rain and snow showers over the region late in the day.  Precipitation will be really light and may just amount to sprinkles or flurries, perhaps a steadier shower of rain or snow at worst.  It's doubtful we'll see much in the way of accumulation on the snow side if precipitation is ultimately frozen and not liquid as there is very little moisture for this system to work with as it moves through.

The second of the two is pegged for Thursday and Thursday night.  It's possible that some frozen precipitation  falls on the very front end of the system, especially if you're north of Philadelphia as lingering cold air at the surface and aloft provide a snowy or perhaps sleety start.  However, milder air will push in from the Atlantic, resulting in a majority of the storm system falling as rain.  The Euro (below) shows the potential for some wintry precip at the start, while the GFS is a milder model in comparison and limits the potential for frozen precipitation to the Poconos as opposed to the Lehigh Valley (which the Euro includes in the "frozen to start" department).

This second storm system is a bit more potent and has some additional moisture with it -- potentially a half inch or more of rain could fall with the Thursday and Thursday night system.   We will keep an eye on the storm just in case it does trend a bit colder and snowier.  As of now, it's doubtful we see much frozen in the city from the second storm system.