Wednesday, February 01, 2012

February 2nd, 2012 Forecast

Cooler air is on the slow slide into the region.  Tomorrow marks the transition out of the 60ish airmass that has been a part of our landscape for a couple of days, with more typical early February air on the way by the time we get to Friday.  A cool front is sliding on through the region, with temperatures not really reacting to it today.  However, we will step down over the next couple of days into a more "typical" temperature regime.

The cool front will slowly slide south of town overnight and then pause for a while over Delaware and South Jersey.  Low pressure will organize along it and slide east late tonight, bringing showers to areas south of Philadelphia (probably south of a Wilmington-Long Beach Island line), with just mainly cloudy or mostly cloudy skies to the north of the shower area.  By morning, temperatures will range from the 30's north of the city to a couple of degrees either side of 40 from Philadelphia on south...warmest in the city.

Shower chances are greatest in the morning hours before low pressure pulls away.  Sunshine will increase from northwest to southeast in the afternoon as the departing low helps tug some additional cool air down from the northwest.  Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 40's north and west of the city to the lower 50's along I-95 and points southeast.  Winds will nudge to the northwest at 10-15 miles per hour in the afternoon.

We're still monitoring the potential for some rain or snow on Sunday in the region.  Computer modeling is waffling with vastly different forecast outcomes for Sunday and Monday, with each model showing something different as we are dealing with a myriad of factors and lack of strong jet stream momentum to push anything along in a hurry.  The GFS is suggesting a Sunday timeframe for light snow and/or rain for some areas south of the city while the Euro in this morning's early forecast suggested a rain event on Monday evening while Sunday was dry.  The "good" news is that this system as of now does not look particularly foreboding nor terribly high impact.  The "bad" news is that there's little computer guidance consistency to rely upon...that should change by this time tomorrow as the storm system that ultimately impacts the East Coast should move on shore to the Pacific coastline.   At least Friday and Saturday look good as of now -- mid 40's and mostly sunny skies both days.