Tomorrow is shaping up as one of those days that forecasters can earn their paychecks...or strike out badly...on. A stalled out front just to our south is poised to lift north tomorrow into the region as warm air pushes northeast ahead of a stronger cold front that moves through tomorrow night. The push of warmth into the region may not be as potent as first thought to the north of the city as rain, drizzle, and low clouds linger behind the push of warmth aloft thanks to east winds off of the Atlantic.
Yes....it's that time of the year...time for marine influence (winds off of the Atlantic) and some cold air damming in the lower levels of the atmosphere to ruin forecasts!
We're not certain just how far north the warm front will get -- and while earlier data suggested we would see it blast through the region, giving everyone low 60's to low 70's (depending on location) we're not confident the front gets much north of Philadelphia or even to the city. The NAM's higher resolution variant (below) shows the extreme in temperatures that are being anticipated tomorrow afternoon...low 40's in the Lehigh Valley during the mid to late afternoon, 70's in Delaware and South Jersey. We could be flirting with records in Atlantic City and Dover while cursing out low clouds in Doylestown.
The fine line between warmth and loathing the cruelest times of the year.
Along with the fun will be a threat for thunderstorms as the cold front moves through the region tomorrow afternoon. The best chances for thunder will be in the warm sector -- south of wherever the surface warm front ends up setting up shop. Wouldn't surprise me if some spots get in on gusty winds with the frontal boundary thunder threat tomorrow afternoon and evening but the best chances for this will be Delaware and Maryland. South Jersey doesn't have as good a shot as Delaware but you're in the game for some gusty winds and thunder. IF the warm front lifts north of the city, the city stands a chance as well but all of this is dependent on the warm front lifting through and a decent amount of sunshine breaking out in the warm sector.