Saturday, February 18, 2012

Forecast for Sunday, February 19, 2012

A weak cold front moving through tonight will bring some scattered snow and rain showers to the area, especially north of Philadelphia and Trenton. If there is an isolated coating of snow, it would be in the higher terrain of the Poconos.

Increasing cloudiness is expected on Sunday as a strong area of low pressure lifts northeastward and exits the North Carolina or South Carolina coastline. The computer models still are struggling with the concept of how far north the snow develops. The NAM model develops a period of moderate snow into Central and Southern Delaware, with lighter snow to about the Pennsylvania Turnpike and Route 70. The GFS has measurable snow occurring in Georgetown and Dover, but barely. The other models are in-between the two extremes. If the 12z and 18z NAM ends up being correct and moderate snow occurs in Kent and Sussex Counties...surface temperatures are going to be above 32 degrees making it not only a wet snow…but a snow that will have a hard time accumulating.

After analyzing soundings and all of the guidance, we think any snow north of the Atlantic City Expressway and southern New Castle County line would be in the form of stray flurries…and that is being generous. South of this point, you may see some light snow sneaking up for a time...but we tend to believe that it will just be some widely scattered snow showers or widespread flurries with little or no snow accumulation. For areas in Central and Southern Delaware, you may squeeze a coating to two inches of wet, slushy snow out of this event should you receive a burst of moderate snowfall. It is very possible that even Sussex County doesn’t break out the ruler for this, but this is something to be fine-tuned with now casting on Sunday. The northern half of our area may see breaks in the cloud cover on Sunday Afternoon and Evening.

Monday and Tuesday look dry. Wednesday through Friday could feature some rain showers…although timing and coverage are not set in stone. We have already seen some trees begin to develop foilage and this should be advanced further with 50s this week! Unreal for February!