Saturday, February 04, 2012

Overnight Light Rain & Snow Slides Nearby

We're starting the weekend with a mix of clouds and sun through the Delaware Valley -- temperatures are in the 20's in the burbs, 30's along I-95 and at most of the Jersey Shore this morning.   We're tracking the progress of a light rain/snow event for the region for tonight and early tomorrow, with current modeling projections bringing precipitation near the city but bringing the best chances of it to our south as the storm system gets nudged in an east-southeast direction through the Mid Atlantic.   Skies will transition gradually more and more cloudy through the day as the storm system approaches, with temperatures getting into the mid and upper 40's through the region -- we are projecting 49 for the city this afternoon.  The most sunshine today will likely be from to the city's north and northeast today, with the least south and southwest of Philadelphia.

Precipitation should start towards dark or just after that south of the city, initially as some light rain.   The big question is when precipitation with this system will transition over to snow or remain rain -- modeling suggests the northern edges of the precipitation shield will feature some snow, while those of you down towards the Delaware Beaches will likely see only rain from this event.  In terms of accumulations, an inch is probably best case scenario, dusting is probably more likely in the Wilmington to AC swath of real estate, with possible coating accumulations down to a Dover-Cape May corridor if cool enough air can sneak in overnight.  Modeling occasionally teases the city with a few flakes or drops of rain...and it will be close enough that it wouldn't surprise me if the airport gets an observation or two of light snow or light rain while most of the rest of the city is dry.  If precipitation advances north enough to reach the city it will be on the very light side as dry air from the north and northeast will try to counteract the advance of this storm.