Monday, February 06, 2012

Wednesday's Light Snow Potential

There's a pretty good chance we see at least some light snow on Wednesday with a weak disturbance tracking through the region. Computer modeling has been sniffing this out for a couple of days -- timing has generally sped up from a Thursday night/Friday event a few days ago to a Wednesday event as the system comes closer to impacting the region.   First things first -- it's not a huge system by any stretch but for some it will be a sweep snow (meaning you can sweep it away with your broom) as a couple of inches of snow could accumulate on grassy surfaces or untreated walkways.

The best chances for snow will be from the city on north and west -- timing is still a tad uncertain but most of the models are pinning down Wednesday midday through Wednesday late afternoon for this system.  The Euro as of this morning was the exception and about 6-12 hours later...I would expect it to 'speed up' as we close in on the event.


There is some question about precipitation type for those southeast of the city.  The Euro (above) suggests the possibility of light rain changing to snow across portions of South Jersey and Northern Delaware as the system moves through...it's also the model showing the most precipitation with this system and that "heavier" precipitation may help coax a changeover from light rain to light snow to overcome the marginal surface and lower atmosphere conditions.  The NAM and GFS are slightly warmer with the atmosphere's bottom layers and slightly lighter with precipitation in general...as a result we could see a mix of rain/snow south and east of I-295 and south of Route 70.   It's a close call for you guys down there.

North and west, as of now, is an easier call to make (should fall mostly as snow) and it looks like an inch or two of accumulation for those along and northwest of I-95 can't be ruled out across grassy surfaces.  If the GFS/NAM daytime timing is ultimately right, treated roads should be wet as precipitation will be light and paved surfaces will be warm after a couple of mild days.  If we see this come in a bit later in the day it might be a different story.

We'll have another update on this in the morning.