Sunday, March 11, 2012

Forecast for Monday, March 12, 2012

Fire weather concerns remain with us as we begin the new week. Low relative humidity values, breezy conditions, and a dry surface layer will combine with unseasonably warm temperatures to create an enhanced threat for the rapid spread of wildfires should one develop. If winds are a bit stronger than presently forecast...critical conditions warranting a red flag warning may develop in parts of our area. Watch the latest information from the National Weather Service on this potential throughout the week. We don't have soaking rains in the forecast.

A disturbance coming through late Monday and early Tuesday will bring light, scattered showers. Then a weak cold front will slide through the area Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible with the second feature. The front will likely coincide with daytime heating over the Poconos and Lehigh Valley and that is where the best chance for any appreciable rainfall from this exists. Once the morning clouds clear, temperatures could surge quickly ahead of the front into the mid 70s in Philadelphia.

Behind the cold front on Wednesday and Thursday...not much in the way of cool air. Low 70s look reasonable at this moment. Mostly Sunny skies are expected.

The one change I have made is to consider a back door cold front on Friday and Saturday. There could be a wide range of temperatures with 50s north of the front and 70s south of the front. Different models show Philadelphia in different locations with respect to the front. 69 is the middle ground at this point. This front could be a trigger for afternoon thunderstorms in the areas that are south of the boundary.