Sunday, March 18, 2012

Forecast for Monday, March 19, 2012

More fog, locally dense, is expected late tonight into Monday Morning. The thickest fog is expected along the coastal communities of New Jersey and Delaware. It is quite difficult determining how much moisture remains in a shallow layer near the surface to aid the fog from the ocean to spread inland. But at the very least, some patchy fog is expected even in the greater Philadelphia area.

Tomorrow’s temperature forecast is not clear cut. We expect upper 50s again along the coast, especially in Cape May County where a weak onshore flow will continue to bring in an ocean influence and lock in low clouds. Elsewhere, it will be dependent on how much fog there is and how fast it burns off prior to afternoon cloudiness associated with a piece of energy that may bring showers and thunderstorms. Fog may be most limited in the morning closer to Lancaster and Reading and if that is the case, the best warming and best dynamics for thunderstorms is expected there.

More fog is possible Monday Night into Tuesday. On Tuesday, a backdoor cold front may play havoc on our temperatures with a wide range from northeast to southwest. It is hard to say with much confidence what the high will be in Philadelphia. I did take it down a few degrees from yesterday’s expectations for now.

On Wednesday and Thursday, I am assuming fog will be more limited in the morning hours and that we will not have a backdoor cold front being a pest. Thursday could get close to record high temperature values in some portions of the area as maximum temperatures could reside near 80 degrees. On Friday, a backdoor front is too close for comfort for us to forecast a second, consecutive day of 80 degrees…but it is possible. The front and some energy may cause some showers and t-storms for Friday into Saturday.

One of these days has the potential to be quite balmy, while another has the potential to be quite raw. “Bust” is written all over the week ahead.