Monday, March 12, 2012

March 13th, 2012 Forecast

Although it's the middle of March, well-above normal temperatures are making it seem more like May in the Philadelphia region.  After an upper-level ridge passes to the east tonight, we can expect to see some showers for the overnight and exiting the area by Tuesday morning.  In all, not everyone will receive showers, however skies all over will clear out tomorrow, and with it a bump in temperatures.  I would not be surprised if some locations hear a quick rumble of thunder tonight as the showers quickly move in and out.

Throughout this past weekend, it seemed like this coming week would be extremely abnormal, with most high temperatures in the lower to mid-70's.  While the area will still continue the trend, models start to take a bit of a cooling trend towards the end of the week, only feeling like late -April rather than mid-May.  High pressure will dominate from the south for a majority of the week, giving us the warmer temperatures.  However, as the high erodes, the possibility of cooler air from the northeast could move in just in time for the weekend, short-lived it may be though.

Wednesday and Thursday both look like great days to get out and enjoy.  Temperatures flirting with the 70-degree mark again and near 100-percent sunshine.  Wednesday looks as if there could be an increased fire danger.  Light winds and an extremely dry atmosphere enhances the risk for a Red Flag Warning. 

Friday and into the weekend we start to see some changes to our weather, but nothing drastic.  As the high pressure starts to weaken and move off, we'll see a cooler burst of northeast wind and the possibility of some showers associated with the next low pressure system to move into the area.  Temperatures have been dropped to the mid to lower 60's, but there is still time to tweak that forecast.  The discussion from the NWS indicated that confidence is very low associated with the weekend.  By Friday, when I forecast next, we'll hopefully have a lot more clarification.