Monday, March 19, 2012

March 20th, 2012 Forecast

With this winter running above normal and working into March, it seems frivolous to say... But Tomorrow begins astronomical spring.  The question is, will the first week of spring bring in summer like temperatures?  There is much talk of 80-degree weather. 

Through tonight, winds will start to calm and become easterly.  Mid-level clouds may form, but most of the models keep the precipitation to the west, however, some of the western and northern areas could see a quick, passing shower.  Tuesday, an easterly flow off the ocean could bring in a layer of stratus clouds, keeping the temperature slightly lower than today.  As with tonight, most of the instability tomorrow should be kept west, however, showers are expected to pass through the area briefly.  A low pressure forming off the North Carolina coast will help with that instability, before moving off to the north and east Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Most of the shower activity should end by Tuesday night.  Wednesday will see some more fog in the region as a southwesterly flow returns.  Once the fog burns off, skies will be mostly sunny and warmer, with temperatures in the mid 70's.  Thursday, models are in agreement on temperatures in the upper 70's to lower 80's.  Being that it is March, I was hesitant to forecast 80-degrees, but I expect many locations to crack 80.  There is also some agreement on a possible frontal passage Thursday night into Friday.  As the forecast for late week becomes clearer, I wouldn't be surprised if a chance of showers is put in the forecast for Thursday night. 

Friday is a transition day, with highs still in the mid-70's and considerable cloudiness.  The next system to affect the region will move in over the weekend, however there are discrepancies among the models as to the timing.  Right now, the weekend remains mostly cloudy with a chance of showers both days, with the best chance of shower activity being Saturday evening into early Sunday afternoon.  For the start of the next work week, Monday look like skies will clear and temperatures in the mid to upper 60's.