Friday, March 30, 2012

Pocono Snow Possible Tonight

Tonight's storm system will be rain for many but the higher elevations of the Poconos could see some snowfall as it moves through tonight.   The below graphic shows last night's run of the higher resolution NAM computer model, showing a stripe of snow across the Poconos and into the Southern Tier of New York State.   Notice it shows no snow south of the Poconos...this is elevation plus latitude at work.

The model shows the potential for perhaps several inches of snow across the highest elevations of the Poconos (Tobyhanna, Mount Pocono crowd).  It is also the southernmost with its extent of snow...the GFS is generally only confined to Upstate New York, with the Euro showing snowfall potentially skirting into Northeastern Pennsylvania (generally above I-84).   The NAM (specifically this particular run that came out) is the coldest of the models and also paints the most optimistic snow scenario, especially since the other two main models don't show any snow at all up there.

With a cold layer in the atmosphere, combined with temperatures near freezing and a decent slug of precipitation moving through overnight, the potential for highest elevations to see a couple of inches of snow is certainly legit.  I don't think the Poconos will pick up the larger amounts of snow that the NAM is hinting at but an inch, perhaps two for Tobyhanna and those places above 1500-1800 feet is certainly not out of the question.

It isn't unusual to get Pocono snow in late March -- it may seem that way given how warm it's been of late -- but these late season snowfalls do occur on occasion.  In this case, it's only for the highest of hills in all likelihood.