Monday, March 12, 2012

Potential For A Thunderstorm Tomorrow PM

Tomorrow's shaping up as one of those days that will not only feel like a tease of May but it could feature some Spring-style thunderstorms in the afternoon as a weak cool front slides into the region from the northwest.  This cool front could trigger a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon to our north and west as the front approaches the region, with the front progged to pass through the Delaware Valley between 5 and 8 PM.

The front is pretty weak in nature -- there is no significant push of chill behind the front nor is it dynamically strong.  However, with anomalously warm temperatures ahead of the front (middle 70's for many, perhaps even upper 70's in spots), there's going to be enough instability with the frontal boundary that if we can get a decent amount of sunshine, thunderstorms could pop along the front in the afternoon hours.

Any storms that do develop have the potential to bring some gusty winds -- but even based on the NAM depiction for late tomorrow afternoon, storms may not be widespread and merely scattered in nature along the front.  The NAM and Euro are more "robust" with the front than the GFS although all three show the potential for a shower or storm in spots.  Odds do not favor severe thunderstorms at this point but with the moisture and warmth ahead of the front (dew points in the 50's, temperatures in the 70's), some stronger thunderstorms can't be ruled out as the pattern screams more "May" and less "March" around these parts.