Thursday, March 29, 2012
Rainy Friday Night & Saturday Morning
The NAM is the "overhead" (in fact, a couple of runs of the NAM take the low north of city) model and was also the generally less rainy model -- a couple of tenths of an inch for Philly on north, with a third of an inch plus for the Poconos and points north in runs early this morning (see data below), although the model has become a bit more robust on rainfall in its midday run. The GFS has been traditionally the more rainy model -- suggesting between a third of an inch for AC and as much as over eight tenths of an inch in Mount Pocono. It also is a southern track system -- taking the low south of Philadelphia but is quite a bit more aggressive on rainfall compared to the Euro, which is also tracking the low south of the city.
If we do pick up more than three tenths of an inch of rain with this event, it will be our largest rain event of the month, beating the 0.30" event between the 2nd and 3rd.
Rainfall should move in after 8 PM on Friday west of the city and be out of town by mid to late morning on Saturday, with the duration of the day generally cloudy although some sun can't be ruled out in the afternoon.