Thursday, March 22, 2012

Slowly Approaching A Weekend Rain

A large pinwheeling low pressure system in the middle of the country will gradually reach the East Coast this weekend, spreading rain into our region.   As of now, the best chances of rain exist between Saturday afternoon and Sunday night.  Although it may not rain at all times and it could simply be showery and drizzly in spots in between waves of rain, the potential for decent if not significant rainfall for the region is pretty high as the low pressure center is slow moving and the system will be able to tap into Atlantic moisture.

Computer model projections vary quite a bit by model -- with the Euro model (above) suggesting the potential for over two inches of rain between Saturday and early Monday across Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia, with the Philadelphia region perhaps seeing an inch to an inch and a half of rain from this system, while places to the north of the city see a bit less.  The GFS has a more uniform placement of rains through the region -- most everyone gets about an inch, with the Jersey Shore getting perhaps over an inch and a half between Saturday and Sunday night.  The Euro solution is a bit more moist and robust with the storm, with a bit more rainfall falling throughout the weekend as opposed to GFS, which is a bit less intense on rainfall.

It would not surprise us if some thunder did fire up this weekend...the best chances of that will likely be in Delaware or Central Pennsylvania...although those chances are not that high.

Nothing ark-busting is expected and given our recent dry weather, an inch or inch and a half type rainfall is not a bad thing to pick up.   However, the timing (weekend) and the fact it's coming on the heels of our weather May in March fling makes it less "ideal" since much of us are suffering from Spring Fever of some degree.  At least some pollen will wash out of the atmosphere, at the expense of having hay fields in many of our yards as lawns lap in the rains!