Tuesday, April 03, 2012

After Typical Week, Perhaps Cool For A Bit Next Week?

We talked back on Saturday about this week being rather typical this week and into the weekend, despite a bit of a "cool" shot for a couple of days later on Thursday and Friday. By cool, nothing terribly below average but the prospect of more suburban frost rears again as clear skies and light winds will help temperatures drop off a fair bit at night.

As we move into next week, there have been signs for a couple of days in the mid range models that we could see a cool stretch of weather for a couple of days a week from now. In the wake of a very nice Easter with plenty of sunshine, a cool front looks to be crossing the region.  Across Eastern Canada, a trough in the atmosphere looks to be digging down into the the eastern parts of the US and helping establish a cool stretch of weather for the middle of next week.

Both the Euro (above) and GFS (below) suggest the setup takes place around Tuesday...granted we're a week out so the details could evolve a fair bit but there's pretty decent agreement for a cool down next week.  The Euro's trough is a bit sharpen and timed a bit more perfectly with a weak disturbance tracking along the aforementioned cool front.  This results in the model developing low pressure along the front, bringing a raw, cool rain to the region for the middle of next week.  The GFS has a similar setup but it's displaced a bit to the South in its genesis (over Wilmington, NC), with the low tracking up into Eastern New England while the Euro brings the low parallel to the East Coast from the Tidewater into Connecticut.    Both setups suggest the weather in the middle of next week could be less than ideal.

Temperatures regardless of outcome could be as cool as the lower 50's in the city for highs with showers or a chilled rain next Wednesday if this verifies...not exactly beautiful April weather...but the ebb and flow of retreating cold and the approach of warm will yield a few less than ideal days along the way.

This pattern won't last -- we should see things warm back up towards the end of next week...perhaps with a pretty warm day next Friday or Saturday ahead of another cold front.  Details to be determined, of course!