Wednesday, April 11, 2012

April 12th, 2012 Forecast

Our cool pattern will break down over the coming days as the large scale low in the atmosphere over the Eastern Canada begins to weaken and push off into the Atlantic.  The result is a gradual warmup that will bring us first back to "normal" on Friday and then into late Spring by Sunday as temperatures push back near 80 degrees buoyed by warm southwest breezes.

Tonight features any early showers tapering off after sunset, with skies gradually clearing off and a cool night ahead.  Some outlying areas could see frost but odds favor temperatures avoiding the freezing point in most of the region despite a cool night ahead.  Lows range from the 30's outside of the city to around 40 in Philadelphia, with northwest breezes of 10 to 15 miles per hour tonight.

Thursday will feature more sun than today...and continued breezy conditions.  It's possible a sprinkle or shower fire up in New Jersey in the afternoon as the last fingers of the trough linger nearby but odds favor dry through the region.  Highs should reach 60 in the city, perhaps low 60's south of town, with upper 50's common to our northwest.  Wind gusts could reach 30 miles per hour tomorrow afternoon.

Forecast confidence is pretty high through Sunday, with a chance of showers or a storm passing through Saturday night with a warm front pushing across the region.  Temperatures should approach 80 on Sunday provided enough sunshine breaks out.  The question then turns to a cool front that tries to push down from the northwest.  One computer model (Euro) keeps the front to our north through Monday before sliding it south of town for a day, the other pushes the front through on Sunday evening and gives us a cooler Monday and Tuesday.  Monday brings arguably the most uncertainty in temperatures as Philly could reach 85 or be in the 60's depending on how this front behaves.   The good news for those who want rain is that we'll have chances of showers or storms in the region on Sunday, late Tuesday, and Wednesday.  Whether those chances turn to reality remains to be seen.