Friday, April 20, 2012

Forecast for April 21st, 2012

While this weekend will be somewhat of a washout, this rainfall that we are expecting is well needed as most places in the Tri-State area are over 6 inches below normal on the year.  There was some disagreement over the initial track of this nor'easter, however it now looks as though the track will take it just off the coast.

If you have any late night plans for the weekend, tonight is the night to get them in.  Clouds gradually increase tonight into tomorrow.  Temperatures tonight remain fairly warm in the upper 50's in the city and south, mid-50's to the north.  Fog will start to form early morning Saturday.  Tomorrow, showers will gradually start to move in after noon, with the heavier showers and some thunderstorms into the evening.  For most people, the morning hours into the afternoon will not be a total washout, so there is still part of the weekend to take in some blue sky and sunshine.  Temperatures ahead of the system will be warm.  Winds will be from the south and west tomorrow, with higher gusts occurring in some of the stronger showers and thunderstorms.

A bulk of the heavier showers comes in on Sunday.  Total precipitation could be up to three inches.  Right now, a majority of the river flooding guidance keeps a majority of the river gauges in "Action Stage", or just below "Flood Stage".  This guidance is for two inches of rain, however.  The smaller streams and creeks could flood over their banks however, especially with the hard-packed ground may not be able to soak up all of the precipitation, causing increased runoff.  Another issue with this nor'easter is the potential for strong, gusty winds.  Winds could reach 40 mph inland, with 50 mph gusts along the coast.  Coastal areas could also experience flooding around high tide, as well as coastal erosion.

Things start to clear out on Monday.  Showers will gradually taper off to just scattered across the area.  It will be noticeable cooler out as well, with temperatures Monday struggling to reach 60-degrees.  Showers may linger in Tuesday, but we will see the sun again as well.  Wednesday will be warmer with partly sunny skies.  Thursday another quick system will pass through.  Skies will be a bit more cloudy and a passing shower might move through.  The temperatures trend through the end of the week seems to be cooler, so the 70-degree high for Thursday might actually be cooler than that.  Friday will be another nice day with mostly sunny skies and near-average temperatures.