Saturday, April 07, 2012

Forecast for Easter Sunday, April 8, 2012

Another day of critical fire conditions is expected for Sunday. This means that any uncontrolled fire that develops will have a tendency to spread rapidly and grow explosively. We remind vulnerable residents that are located in the forests and woodlands to pay attention to directives from local law enforcement should evacuations become necessary. We aren’t anticipating widespread fire development (like the past few days), but it only takes one fire in a populated area to threaten homes and lives. Winds will be sustained 10 to 20 MPH, with gusts up to 25 MPH. There will be more of a westerly component to the wind direction on Sunday, so any uncontrolled fire will tend to spread south-southeast on a north-northwest wind. By Sunday Evening, winds will be mostly out of the west, spreading any flames and smoke that develop to the east.

Early in the morning, frost is unlikely due to limited moisture content of the air. Temperatures will also have difficulty falling to the freezing mark in most locales if the winds stay gusty through the night. Still, an isolated 32 degree reading in places around Lakehurst, Mount Pocono, or Millville wouldn’t be out of the question.
More clouds are expected to enter the picture on Sunday, but mostly in the late evening hours. There could be a sprinkle or shower in the Poconos, but the chance is too slight and moisture is too limited to enter that into the graphics.

The fire risk on Monday is in questionable. There is a chance, around 30 percent, of scattered rain showers. Obviously, any shower chance brings with it higher relative humidity numbers. However, until it rains on Monday, breezy conditions will make it possible for at least enhanced fire danger to be present. If the rain and moisture content is once again limited, critical fire conditions cannot be ruled out Monday. I am hopeful of a bit more widespread round and healthy dose of showers for Tuesday and Wednesday or at least more moisture in the air. There is a slight chance of t-storms on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday look mainly dry at the moment and partly to mostly sunny. If we don’t receive appreciable rainfall early this week, the fire concerns may increase for the latter half of the week.

If you live along the coastal tidal waters…some minor tidal flooding is possible during the next 48 hours.

Have a great Easter Sunday! Happy Easter!