Saturday, April 14, 2012

Forecast for Sunday, April 15, 2012

A warm front moving through early Sunday will bring with it a round of rain showers. These should be scattered showers and they will likely do little to relieve us from extreme fire danger and moderate drought conditions. There could be a rumble of thunder as well, but at this point the chance is slight.

Clouds early will give way to more sunshine during the afternoon and evening. This is when we expect temperatures to respond nicely and temperatures should rise into the mid and upper seventies. The Delmarva could reach into the lower eighties as you folks down there should be the first to see the clouds thin. Some of the models have come down quite a bit for Sunday...holding the front here longer...and we will have to monitor this closely in the morning. There is a bust potential for Sunday.

On Monday, we are well into the southwest flow around a developing Bermuda High. A cold front approaching late Monday Night will strengthen the southerly flow. Therefore, temperatures will likely push into the middle and upper eighties in many areas outside of the higher terrain. A few isolated locations could actually hit or slightly exceed 90 degrees. The cold front late at night may produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but it arrives at a time when instability will be diminishing and in an environment that isn’t really all that moisture loaded.

On Tuesday, high temperatures drop back into the upper seventies with a few spots perhaps getting into the lower eighties. The front is expected to stall nearby on Tuesday and Wednesday. A few showers or even a thunderstorm is possible…especially if any well-defined area of energy can form on the front and move along it. Another front is possible late week and that one as well could stall nearby and keep us unsettled. Temperatures are cooler during the mid to late week period behind the cooler flow in the wake of the fronts and due to the expected clouds. These shower chances could end up a lot like this week where they are widely scattered and so light that the fire danger continues.

Anyhow, if there are some severe weather enthusiasts out there…tonight is a good night to watch anywhere from Nebraska down through Oklahoma where a moderate and high risk of severe weather exists along with particularly dangerous situation tornado watches. There could also be some isolated tornadoes around Iowa. There are already some decent rotating couplets on the radar and the threat for tornadoes will be greatest during the evening hours into early morning hours. The Storm Prediction Center expects strong and violent tornadoes to occur somewhere in the threat area as all the parameters look highly favorable and characteristic with previous outbreaks of such activity.