Saturday, April 07, 2012

One More Week Of Cool Then Mid Month Warmth?

Our pattern in the last week has taken on a more "typical" early Spring feel...lots of wind with lots of sun as the influence of high pressure in the Great Lakes and Central Ontario has pushed reality into our region after a  May-in-March scenario a few weeks' prior.  The coming week will take on a February-like look on paper...although it won't feel that cold.

Low pressure worked through the Southeast earlier in the week -- the system that was responsible for the Texas twisters -- and is now in the Atlantic.  This storm system will get pulled north and then northwest thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure aloft in the Central Atlantic.  The low will then deepen into a trough for Eastern North America for the middle portions of next week, bringing us what may shape up as the coolest days of April for us weather-wise.

As the trough spins up over Eastern Canada and the US, a couple of waves of instability will push through on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing shower chances to the region along with cool high temperatures both days.  It would not surprise us to see some lower 50's for highs on Wednesday just to the city's north and west, depending on how much sunshine we get.  Even in the city, mid 50's would not be a surprise.  It doesn't look like a widespread rain or a soaker is on tap but shower chances do exist for the middle of the week.  Unlike this past week, the influence of a trough having more play on the East Coast weather this week will result in more clouds around starting Monday and continuing to Thursday.

The good news is that the trough in place will gradually break down -- it will start to wane on Thursday and high pressure at the surface will build in for Friday and next weekend.  As the high moves overhead and then moves off the coast, a ridge in the mid atmosphere may build briefly ahead of a storm system that could pass through here on/around the 16th or 17th.   If this ridge does indeed build overhead, temperatures may spike into the 70's at the end of next weekend, perhaps even make a run at 80 on the 16th if everything breaks right.  In this transition, there could be a warm front push with a chance of showers on Saturday but we're a week out -- lots can change on timing/placement of those showers as we approach next weekend.

For those wanting May to return, the wait isn't going to have to be another three plus weeks...even if the return of May is just brief.