Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Showery Start To Thursday, Showery Weekend As Well

The next several days aren't going to be terribly warm, especially on the order of what we were seeing last Sunday and Monday as the region pushed into the 80's and flirted/hit 90 degrees.  A cool trough in the atmosphere will remain in place over the Eastern US, with a parade of weak disturbances tracking east in the mid level flow around the base of the atmospheric trough.

The first of these pushes through the region on Thursday.  It doesn't look a particularly strong system -- if it were winter it'd be a "clipper" type system as its track is coming from Alberta.  Showers will spread into the region early in the morning hours, continuing through midday before shower coverage becomes more scattered with the low passing overhead.   Showers likely amount to a tenth of an inch, perhaps a quarter inch in spots, since there's not a ton of dynamics involved with the low pressure center...it'll be wet enough to make Thursday morning's commute a bit more "fun" in any case.

The trailing cool front from this low pressure center will set up across the Mid Atlantic, which will provide a highway for the next system to track through the region over the course of the weekend.  Modeling varies on timing for the weekend system, with the GFS faster at this point with bringing precipitation into the region on Saturday while the Euro is more Saturday night into Sunday.  Either solution brings a chilled shower event to parts of the region at some point over this weekend though as highs may not crack 60 on either Saturday or Sunday with showers in place.  It doesn't look like a full blown soaking at this point but unsettled, damp, and cool weather does look increasingly likely heading into the weekend.