Sunday, April 29, 2012

Transitioning Out Of The Cool

Today marked the 8th straight day of below average temperatures around the region...and tomorrow should be the 9th such day.  This is the longest streak in over a year if you track purely below average temperatures (and not include "average" as part of the equation)...one would have to go back to January for a purely below average streak.

That streak will come to an end -- relatively quickly -- by Tuesday and summer may be back in place by the end of the work week.   First, the transition on Monday night -- showers and thunderstorms are possible as the transition takes place between cool and warm.  These thunderstorms will move on through in the late night/early morning, perhaps lingering through the morning rush hour before departing.   It doesn't look like an overly heavy thunderstorm event but with warmer air working in aloft and the warm front pushing in, some rumbles and rain can't be ruled out.

Thunder chances for Monday night.  NAM model showing showers/storms moving in late.
The pattern for much of the rest of the week will not look like last week...a ridge of high pressure bubbles aloft on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures poised to jump into the 80's both days for highs.  Mid 80's can't be ruled out on Friday as well.  Along with those warming temperatures, some thunder chances are possible due to daytime heating and weak disturbances moving through the Mid Atlantic.  Best chances for any thunder would be in the afternoon or evening hours on Thursday and Friday -- as well as over the weekend in general as the ridge breaks down and a cool front approaches from the west.
Ridge of high pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday, with highs over 80 likely both days.