For those who buy into the accuracy of long range forecasts, being a day off with a coastal storm three weeks out is not a bad call. The infamous "April 23rd rain" that AccuWeather's 25 day forecast had projected for our region in its initial call was not a bad forecast in terms of generality. In terms of getting it right on the right day, which the forecast's mission was supposed to be...it's not horseshoes or hand grenades...
Its revisions as time marches on? Even worse.
Last week's seven days of forecast tracking compared to reality show an average error of 11.1 degrees per day for the 12th through 18th days of the forecast range.
While the forecast does show the tendency for a cooler/warmer/wetter/drier pattern (although it has occasional misfires)..simple charts and graphics can make that point just as easily as spitting out a high or a low. I don't think exact temperature predictions are useful in these type of forecasts...and shouldn't be used until we can get the errors down a little bit more.