Saturday, May 19, 2012

Carolina Coastal Low Update

The tropics are starting to fire up and the blob of thunderstorm activity just south of Wilmington, NC is starting to organize into a tropical or subtropical entity.  Thunderstorms have persisted off of the Carolina coast for a couple of days as a cool front stalled off of the Carolina coast.  The first wave of energy organized into a non tropical low that's east of the Virginia coastline, with lingering energy hanging back and sitting and spinning over the ocean.  This entity is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible development into a tropical system over the next couple of days.

Some computer modeling gradually brings some form of this system onshore over the Carolinas on Sunday night or Monday, spreading slowly westward before turning northward.  If the system does develop into a tropical storm, it likely would not remain designated as one if it were to track over the Mid Atlantic as land interaction would weaken it.  That said, it could enhance the rain/shower scenario that will set up on Monday and continue into much of the coming week.