Sunday, May 13, 2012

Late Week Low May Develop In Atlantic

In the wake of our front that crosses the region on Monday through early Wednesday, the potential exists for low pressure to organize on the southern end of this front as it moves out into the Atlantic. Computer modeling waffles about placement, strength, and timing of this low but there's a general consensus that something develops off of the Carolinas, Florida, or Bahamian coastline later this week.  These type of low pressure developments are not unusual in the summer and occasionally a tropical storm or two can result from it.

The most aggressive scenario is arguably from the Euro, which paints a low firing up and spinning around the Western Atlantic. Various scenarios have lifted this low up the East Coast, stalled it out off the Carolinas, or send it slowly northeast harmlessly out to sea. Take your pick!

Whether this low is tropical or not remains to be seen -- some modeling wants to take this and turn it in a more tropical direction while the GFS is weaker, diffuse, and sprawled out in a subtropical or merely nontropical fashion.  Whatever type of low that ultimately spins up will turn into a massive hurricane of any sort -- but it does have the chance of throwing some rain into the Mid Atlantic on Saturday or Sunday.  The farther south one goes the better the chances of some unsettled weather for next weekend, assuming this low does develop.  Given the pattern doesn't support much of a quick exit, anything that does develop could be a part of the picture for a while this weekend and even into early next week.