Sunday, May 06, 2012

Pattern Stuck On Ducky

I wanted to say the pattern was stuck on "stupid" but it makes little sense since weather can't be "smart" or "dumb" although I'm pretty sure some would beg to differ about it. Ducky kinda captured the spirit of the thing since yet another in a parade of slow moving frontal boundaries will be approaching our region later on this week, stalling out just offshore and helping to keep our weather in a malaise of gray later on this week.

The front approaches the region Monday night, with showers in the forecast as the warm front portion of the system approaches. The best chances of showers will be north/west on Monday night, overhead on Tuesday as the cool front approaches from the west. It's possible a few of the storms on Tuesday afternoon to our west could be strong/severe but we're still a couple of days out on this...the setup's not the best but a few could get strong in Central PA.   The front moves through and....guess what...slows and then stalls as we move into Wednesday.


Depending on which computer model you prefer, we could see a couple of waves of rain/thunder move through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The first would be for I-95 and New Jersey on Wednesday -- the GFS is hinting at this a bit more strongly, with a second wave possible along the coast as a low pressure center organizes just offshore Wednesday night.  This low would track out to sea but could throw back some rain to coastal sections.  The Euro only hints at the coastal low and doesn't push as much moisture through our region as the front slowly crosses on Wednesday.  That said, the weather would be relatively cloudy and perhaps showery in spots on Wednesday...it's just a matter of how showery it could be.


The good news is that as this low gets going, it will help kick start a drying trend.  It might take until Friday for the pattern to fully dry itself out as upper level energy hangs back Thursday and perhaps fires up a shower or two in the afternoon.  The weekend, as of now, looks quite nice on the whole with temperatures gradually warming back through the 70's for highs.   Fingers crossed!