Tuesday, May 22, 2012

A Touch Warmer, Perhaps A Touch Wetter Locally

We're off to a damp and drizzly start this morning in Philly and across New Jersey with temperatures in the 60's throughout the region.  A weak disturbance associated with that coastal trough/low pressure system is pivoting into North Jersey from the Atlantic and throwing rain and drizzle inland, with precipitation reported as far west as the Airport.  Those showers and drizzle batches will linger around for a good chunk of the morning before a break develops over the city and points west around midday or into the early afternoon.

Assuming this break does indeed develop, we could see some areas of sun pop through the cloud deck if we're lucky...some of the higher resolution modeling is trying to paint this picture.  If that happens, or if there's mere brightening, temperatures would respond and bounce into the middle 70's for high temperatures this afternoon in areas where said brightening takes place.  It could also agitate the atmosphere enough to lead to shower and thunderstorm redevelopment across some parts of the region.  Any thunder chances are higher in the afternoon with atmospheric instability from daytime heating and also interaction with an upper level trough crossing the region.

The Shore will be a bit cooler this afternoon but weather will gradually improve there later on as well -- highs should reach around 70.

In terms of how much rain falls -- the region's rainfall will again vary by location -- some spots will be lucky to get much more than a trace, others will get a half inch.  The best chances of more rain will be across North Jersey and the best chances for least will be south of town.