Sunday, June 24, 2012

Forecast for Monday, June 25, 2012


Despite the loss of daytime heating after dusk, the model guidance continues to suggest the development of strong thunderstorms as a cold front approaches from the northwest late tonight into Monday. Strong gusty winds and hail may accompany the strongest thunderstorms if the models are on target.

While presently not under a slight risk for late tonight (and later SPC outlooks could add a risk), we are under a "see text" risk which gives us a 5% chance of severe weather happening within 25 miles of any given point. Portions of Eastern New Jersey and Delaware are in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday. The front may not move offshore quickly enough and some modest daytime heating could allow for severe thunderstorms to develop in the slight risk area....despite mostly cloudy skies.

On Tuesday, a meandering area of low pressure may allow for cumulus clouds to quickly form after a few hours of sunshine. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. I am currently optimistic about Wednesday being sunny and dry as this low could be lingering...although it should be losing any influence it has.

A warm front late in the week will bring some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms our way, before another period of potentially excessive heat develops. Temperatures right now are on the conservative side of the spectrum and may have to be increased in later forecasts. For Friday, should the warm front have a struggle to move through or bring some more widespread showers and thunderstorms, the temperature could be kept down a few degrees...but at the same time...more sun could mean for hotter temperatures. It will be a tricky day. A cold front may arrive later in the weekend, but the models are not in agreement on the timing and that may be delayed into next week.

The track of Tropical Storm Debby is far from certain. The National Hurricane Center track has shifted significantly over the past 12 hours to the north and east. Therefore, the eventual track of the remnants needs to be watched carefully and this could potentially impact our current hot weather expectations in the long range should there be any suggestion of the moisture heading our way (a northward shift does not necessarily mean this system shoots straight up to the north...it could turn to the right before getting into the Mid-Atlantic). Due to considerable uncertainty, this forecast plays things out as if it was not going to affect us.