Thursday, June 28, 2012

Friday Morning Thunder Threat

Despite our return to the 90's, the worst of the upcoming hot shot is forthcoming, separated by a warm front that will cross the region tonight. Along that warm front may be one of those classic "ring of fire" MCS thunderstorm complexes that tends to fire up in the late afternoon and rides along frontal boundaries through the evening and overnight hours.

Computer modeling hints at the possibility of a complex of storms developing in Wisconsin or Michigan this afternoon or evening, pushing east and then southeast through the Mid Atlantic as we go through the night.  This complex of thunderstorms is modeled a bit differently between the GFS, Euro, and NAM...which isn't a surprise because we're dealing with a thunderstorm complex and a more small scale feature in the atmosphere as opposed to a larger scale storm system...differences between the models with handling thunderstorm complexes in the summer is not unusual.  That said, this storm complex probably crosses portions of the region after 3 AM, bringing some gusty winds and localized downpours for those who get impacted.   Determining "who" will be the tough part but odds sorta favor a swath from Allentown to Toms River south through Lancaster to Atlantic City, which seems to be the consensus.

The other side impact of tonight's thunderstorm complex moving through is the sound and light show.  Nighttime thunderstorm events can be pretty loud and boisterous, with a good deal of some early wakeups for a number of folks in the Delaware Valley may be in the offing.