Thursday, June 14, 2012

Heat Event On Tap Later Next Week?

Computer modeling is starting to sniff out the potential for a shot of heat that could last two to three days across the Delaware Valley.  There is a fair bit of spread between the Euro and GFS about how hot the heat is going to be...and that's not to be unexpected as we're a week out from this event...but there is a pretty clear signal and consistency that we will get at least one hot day...perhaps as many as three before this stretch of heat passes at the end of the week.

In the wake of a weak trough over the Eastern US for the next few days a ridge of high pressure aloft will build in gradually over the first few days of the new work week.  The ridge will build in across the East and strengthen, becoming more dominant by Wednesday or Thursday.  The Euro is more aggressive in developing this ridge and bringing us a heat wave -- whereas the GFS is a bit more subdued in how warm it wants to take us as it does not develop a ridge of high pressure to the same extent the Euro does.

Illustration of Euro for Wednesday 8 PM, showing the ridge of high pressure in the mid atmosphere building over the East Coast (darker reds show the strongest areas of high pressure aloft).

The Euro is suggesting we could flirt with 90 on Wednesday afternoon in many portions of the region (see map below), with even warmer air in store for Thursday (mid 90's?) before a cool front pushes through the region on next Friday afternoon and evening with a thunderstorm chance.   The GFS comes in cooler but does suggest the possibility of 90 for next Thursday.

The look in the models may change a bit over the coming days -- I think the amount of heat that the Euro is suggesting for Thursday and into Friday is arguably overdone a notch or two.  That said, I do think we have a shot at 90 degree weather for the latter portions of next week...and it's possible it could be a two or three day setup if the Euro's look ends up being more right than not.