Friday, June 29, 2012

Saturday Night Severe Special

There have been two "known" types of Saturday Night Specials -- one is the cheap handgun, the other the tacky Phillies' all red ensemble from 1979 that was worn all of once.

From a jersey collecting standpoint, the jersey itself isn't bad...those pants are another story.  Of course, most everything from a baseball jersey standpoint in the 1970's was pretty putrid so seeing these is just further evidence.

Speaking of ugly, there's a good chance that your Saturday night could turn ugly from a weather standpoint as another disturbance rides along the "heat" boundary that lurks across the Mid Atlantic.  This disturbance will, like this morning's thunderstorm round, bring another shot of strong to severe thunderstorms across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware  after another hot and toasty day takes place on Saturday.

The Storm Prediction Center has us under a slight risk (as of now) for severe weather but has expressed some concern that some portions of the slight risk may be upgraded to moderate due to the potential for significant damaging wind and hail with any thunderstorm development that takes place on Saturday afternoon in the Great Lakes.

For us, timing and impact look to be on Saturday evening, generally after 7 or 8 PM from west to east.  Models differ quite a bit on placement of storms, not as much on timing details...but that's to be expected since this is another atmospheric ripple that's going to fire thunderstorms up.  Modeling, such as the NAM below, suggest the mean track is generally along and north of the Pennsylvania/Maryland border.  The GFS places the axis of thunder a bit farther north than the NAM, with the Euro a touch south.

While Saturday night brings the "best" potential for severe weather prospects, I can't discount the possibility of a late night storm tonight (or early morning Saturday) south of the city as modeling also suggests a complex of thunderstorms fires up in Michigan and pushes east and southeast overnight.  However, unlike tomorrow evening's storms and this morning's storms, it does not look as strong and severe prospects look a bit less likely with anything that moves through Delaware and Maryland tonight.