Monday, June 25, 2012

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Today

Update, 7 AM: With the front pushing into the northern fringes of our area, thunderstorms are breaking out ahead of the can see the storm in Bucks County to the north of Doylestown. Despite limited daytime heating (given it's 7 AM), there's enough instability in the atmosphere with the approaching front to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2 PM for the Delaware Valley (salmon shaded counties).   Storms will impact the region as the front moves in from the northwest over the next few hours, with any severe potential this morning for I-95 and northwest, shifting east as we hit midday and early afternoon.

A cool front lies to our northwest early this morning, with a band of rain and thunder from near Scranton trailing back southwest into Central Pennsylvania, pushing southeast.  With warm conditions lying across our region this morning, we have the instability needed for a few stronger thunderstorms to fire (or intensify along the line) as it pushes southeast over the next couple of hours.  The Storm Prediction Center has Southeast PA, much of New Jersey, and all of Delaware under a slight risk for severe weather for today.

I really think the "best" chances of severe weather will be confined to Delaware and South Jersey during the late morning and midday hours -- they will be the last to get impacted by this early morning band of showers and probably have some added daytime heating to work with which folks to the northwest of I-95 won't have the "luxury" of getting much of.  If storms do indeed become strong or severe, gusty winds and hail are potential hazards for later on.  I-95 *could* see a stronger storm this morning but odds favor more run-of-the-mill thunderstorm activity as storms should arrive into the city during the morning hours.

The threat for severe weather should diminish after midday along I-95 and by late afternoon or dinner time at the Shore and in Southern Delaware given the front's timing and push through the region.

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