Saturday, June 09, 2012

Some Storms On Horizon Later Today

A few of us could see some showers and storms later on today as a weak disturbance in the atmosphere tracks southeast through the Great Lakes and across Upstate New York and towards the NYC metro.  This disturbance is tracking around the periphery of a developing ridge of high pressure that will flex tomorrow as the region flirts with 90 degrees tomorrow afternoon for a high.   Today's disturbance will not be as potent as the one that fired up numerous showers and storms around the region on Thursday but will have enough "pop" to it to result in some storms firing up in New York State later.    These storms will track southeast...and given the warming atmosphere and that there is some instability out there one or two of those storms could flirt with severe criteria and bring some strong winds.

While we're not under an official slight risk for severe weather this afternoon, we're in one of those 'see text' areas from the Storm Prediction Center, which highlights the possibility that a few storms could become severe but that the threat is not strong enough to warrant a slight risk.  You can see on the map below that our region is under a 5% shaded area...that means there's a 5% chance of a severe level wind gust (60 mph) within 25 miles of any one spot...you need 15% (see over Minnesota and the Dakotas) for a slight risk of severe weather to be issued.


Any storms that do develop will push southeast...and odds favor areas north of Philadelphia to have a better chance of seeing anything move through late this afternoon or this evening than south and west of town.  The above graphic shows the high res NAM from 9 PM this evening -- showing a complex of storms moving through  North Jersey and the Lehigh Valley at that time.  Of course, it's one model's interpretation and it's possible that showers and storms pop up and move through these areas sooner...but we can reasonably favor the late afternoon and early evening hours as the time frame where storms could fire and move through.

The GFS tries to bring the storm chances closer to Philly than the NAM, with the Euro keeping everything pretty much in the same general spot as the NAM if not farther north.  We'll see how things go later today but odds do favor Lehigh Valley, Poconos, perhaps Bucks County, Trenton, and points north.