Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Tropics Firing Up A Bit

Tropical Storm Chris developed out of a non-tropical storm system that was meandering around the Atlantic for a couple of days to the northwest of Bermuda.  This storm is no threat to the East Coast as it pushes east...and computer modeling shows the system turning north and northwest over the next couple of days, transitioning to non-tropical status again as it works out of the relatively warm waters of the Central Atlantic and into colder water north of the Gulf Stream.   Chris is the third earliest "third" storm on record in the Atlantic basin -- only in 1887 and 1959 have we reached three storms faster than we have this year.

The Central Atlantic is not the only place where the tropics (or near tropics) are active -- there is the potential for another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend as this tropical wave pushes through the Western Caribbean and into the Gulf over the next 24-36 hours.  The system will lift west-northwest but be slow to organize as upper level winds are not favorable for development of any tropical cyclones at this point.  That could change in a couple of days, especially if the upper level winds in the Gulf of Mexico subside.

Computer modeling hints at the possibility of something firing up in the Gulf of Mexico and moving towards Florida's Gulf Coast late in the weekend.  Modeling keeps the system weak and the low pressure center rather broad and disorganized.  However, it does promote a heavier rainfall threat for Florida -- portions of which have certainly picked up a good deal of rain over the last few weeks.