Sunday, July 01, 2012

Forecast for Monday, July 2, 2012

With the exception of one severe thunderstorm that has been impacting the Southern Poconos and Northwestern/North Central New Jersey, thunderstorms have failed to initiate so far on the southern end of a trough interacting with a stale frontal boundary. However, strong instability and a cumulus field persist and additional thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out further south along the trough. The weak boundary moves southward throughout the night. Some drying is taking place near the surface and this may aid in eliminating widespread t-storm development. Some of higher resolution guidance continues to suggest some additional development in Central and Southern New Jersey later tonight, so we will keep an eye on the situation.

Hot temperatures will continue through much of the upcoming week. Some days will be in the lower nineties with spikes into the mid-nineties throughout the week. Humidity at moderate levels will make it feel uncomfortable, especially for those without air conditioning…some w/o as a result of the weekend severe weather. Some restoration efforts will continue through July 6th, and this could be disrupted by any additional thunderstorms.
Additional thunderstorm development is possible this week. On some days, the thunderstorms will be more widespread than others. Various forcing mechanisms will serve as triggers.