Saturday, July 21, 2012

Forecast for Sunday, July 22, 2012

High pressure is slowly taking control of the weather tonight. As a result, the cloud cover will gradually decrease. The comfort level tonight may be the best in more than two months with low dew point temperatures and air temperatures falling into the upper-fifties in Mount Pocono and lower to mid-sixties elsewhere.
I expect Sunday to be mostly sunny, with a few clouds in the sky by afternoon. A weak disturbance will slide across the region on Sunday Afternoon and Evening and this may touch off a very isolated shower. At this time, the chance looks too isolated to insert into the graphics. However, the computer models continue to show some sort of thunderstorm activity coming from upstream early on Monday Morning as the ridge of high pressure loses control over our area. There is a chance that this potential MCS holds together and brings us a round of morning thunderstorms.  Another piece of energy sliding through on Monday Afternoon may produce additional thunderstorms. Temperatures as a result may bust if there is extensive cloudiness that doesn’t quickly clear on Monday Morning. If breaks of sun do not materialize quickly enough, there may not be much in the way of instability for additional afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
There also may be another system upstream that could produce showers and thunderstorms early on Tuesday. By Tuesday Afternoon, a strong cold front will approach the region and this front could produce additional showers and thunderstorms. It may get fairly toasty ahead of the front, especially if that early morning convection can clear fast enough or never materializes, and this could lead to the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. Anyhow, by Tuesday Evening, the front and associated showers and thunderstorms should clear the region. High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a warm front on Friday. Another cold front should arrive sometime during next weekend.