Monday, July 23, 2012

Potential For Some Stronger Storms Later

The next couple of days offer the chance of some stronger storms as a cool front approaches the region from the west and northwest. There is some uncertainty about how organized the storm threat will be today and tonight -- at minimum, some scattered thunderstorm activity is expected around the region during the afternoon hours today.

The Storm Prediction Center has areas north and west of the city under a slight risk of severe weather -- generally from Allentown to Reading and points northwest of there.

This afternoon's activity could be scattered around -- not everyone will get dinged with thunderstorms -- but computer modeling suggests at least a couple of storms passing through the region at times. Some showers crossed to our south this morning...more should pass through our region this afternoon to our north and northwest. The afternoon activity probably will be stronger in general and some gusty winds and heavy rainfall can't be ruled out. Computer modeling varies in terms of placement and level of organization on thunderstorms but all three (GFS, EURO, NAM) suggest at least some scattered storm activity around the region...kinda similar to what the NAM is indicating above although the NAM is arguably the least aggressive in geographic coverage later this afternoon. In other words, not everyone is going to get hit with a passing storm this afternoon but some spots will...and a couple of those could be pretty strong.

The higher resolution NAM does hint at the possibility for another batch of thunderstorms dropping through the region after 3 AM tonight as a more substantive batch of thunderstorm activity fires up in the Great Lakes, pushing east and southeast. This more organized complex of storms may ultimately push a bit more north of the city overnight if it does develop but the NAM hints at a piece of this batch of storms sliding down later tonight.