Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Today's Severe Weather Primer

We have a slight risk for severe weather today across the region, save for Southern and Central Delaware as a cool front approaches from the north and the atmosphere is full of energy and moisture.   The trigger in place is across Upstate New York this morning, pushing southward out in front of the main front...which will slide into our region this evening.   The biggest threats with any storms today will be gusty winds (probably the greatest threat on the docket today), followed by the potential for some large hail.

Heavy rainfall could occur in any thunderstorm but given that most of the thunderstorms will move at a pretty decent rate of speed today we don't foresee any flooding issues.

Thunderstorms will fire late this morning or early this afternoon to the north of Scranton, sliding southward across the region through the afternoon hours.  The threat for storms will increase after 3 PM in the region, with the Lehigh Valley first to get in on thunderstorms.  Philadelphia seems to be more at risk after 4 or 5 PM, with the Shore and Delaware probably getting in on the fun after 6.  Storms will fire up in line...perhaps scattered or broken with a couple of gaps in spots as the storms slide south and southeastward through the afternoon hours.

Some of the higher resolution models like the NAM from PSU suggest that a second round of storms could move through the region after 9 PM this evening...that remains to be seen based on how much energy any first round zaps from the atmosphere.   In any event, the afternoon and early evening hours look to be  stormy in spots as strong and severe storms fire up later on and move through the region.

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