Friday, August 24, 2012

Scattering Of Showers Saturday

We talked about a weak coastal low developing over the Carolina Outer Bank in our post this morning. That feature will be a bit of a fly in the ointment for this weekend's weather. However, there's a good bit of uncertainty about the specific evolution of showers for Saturday and Sunday for parts of the region. The "good" news is that it will not be a total washout for the city and points north and that there will be some moments where the sun will be out, especially for the city and points north.

For areas south of the city, especially Delaware Beaches and Delmarva towns, there will be more prevalent shower activity and it could rain off and on through a good chunk of the day.  Between the three "big" computer models, there is a good deal of uncertainty about the extent of shower coverage Saturday afternoon and evening, with the NAM the least aggressive in shower coverage, the GFS the "happy medium", and the Euro the most aggressive for Delaware, South Jersey, and Maryland.  The Euro's aggressiveness could simply suggest heavier rainfall in any showers that do pop since this isn't a radar interpretation but a projection of how much rain the model thinks could fall Saturday afternoon.  Regardless, the scattering of showers south of the city will be more numerous than north.

The biggest uncertainty for Philly and north is how much (if any) of those showers work in during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow.  The models were kinda slow to pick up on the feature being as close to the coast it is...and had kicked this feature out to sea instead of having it linger around through the weekend as it gets trapped underneath a developing, sprawling high in New England.

If you are heading to the Shore this weekend, shower chances do exist and it won't be a 100% nice weekend...but showers will occur at all times.