Friday, August 10, 2012

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Today

There is a slight risk for severe weather today around the region -- the threat is likely more a wind threat than it is from hail. Severe weather is possible in spots but not on a widespread variety.   Most of the activity this morning will be more from the heavy rain and thunder variety -- severe weather might be limited from this morning's storms. We *could* see a break into the afternoon and early evening hours...and some sun can't be ruled out for a time this afternoon. This would allow for further destabilization of the atmosphere and for that thunder threat to develop late this afternoon and evening.

A key in this afternoon and evening's thunderstorms is how much of a break and how much sun we get (if we get a break). If we see storms pop very easily with a small break, the threat for severe will probably be lower than if there is a four or five hour window, a decent amount of sunshine, and the opportunity to build up some larger thunderstorms in Central and Western PA.  In any case, severe weather prospects are touch and go this afternoon but one can't discount the possibility for a few stronger storms...some of which could drop some heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Speaking of heavy rainfall, the threat of it does exist but not everyone will get in on it. Heavy rainfall will be confined to heavier thunderstorm activity as it moves through. Some spots will pick up over an inch, perhaps over two inches of rain, in isolated spots.  The higher resolution NAM (above) shows this potential pretty well -- many spots may end up with less than an inch of rain and perhaps just a tenth or two.  However, like yesterday, any storm that moves through (especially this afternoon) could produce very heavy rainfall.

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