Monday, August 13, 2012

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Tomorrow

We're under a slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday around the region as a cool front approaches us tomorrow from the west. This front will fire up thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours in Central Pennsylvania...and according to computer modeling, it looks like areas west and northwest of the city are most likely to get in on thunderstorm development.  We should see storms fire up in the early afternoon and move relatively modestly to the east and northeast.  The mid level and lower level flow is not terribly fast so thunderstorms could produce some rather prolific rainfall in addition to some gusty winds and hail.

The first map below is the NAM's depiction of where storms would be around 8 PM tomorrow evening...the second map below is the rainfall projection from the Euro through Tuesday night.

The Euro and NAM both suggest the potential for some rather heavy rainfall totals in Central Pennsylvania tomorrow from thunderstorms, notsomuch locally and east.  The Euro says up to 2" of rain are possible east and northeast of Harrisburg, with the NAM suggesting more than that just to Harrisburg's east in localized downpours.  While what the model paints on a map and what reality delivers are many times a bit different on a geographic scale, the threat for heavy downpours is pretty legit for some portions of the region.   I don't see these storms being much of a big deal south and east of the city -- by the time these get across the river and down towards the Shore it will likely be past dark and the loss of daytime heating will mitigate some of the storm's punch for you in Jersey.  However, for anyone along and west of I-95 the threat for heavy, soaking thunderstorms that could produce some gusty winds is legit tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.