Thursday, August 30, 2012

Tropics Continue To Fire In Isaac's Wake

With Isaac's story over the next few days one of heavy rains for the middle of the country, the focus for tropics followers over the next few days will shift east into the Atlantic.  Two systems are spinning in the center of the Atlantic -- one poses no threat to the East Coast, the other may come a bit closer for comfort in the latter portions of next week.

First, Kirk has 65 mph max winds as of this morning and is moving northwest through the Central Atlantic ocean.  It's not going to impact any land areas as a tropical entity and will gradually turn north, northeast, and then merge with a frontal boundary that lies to its northwest in a few days.  It has a shot at reaching hurricane status before it transitions to a nontropical system...and this might be the only time you see a post about this storm.

In the tropical belt of the Atlantic, this circled area of thunderstorms likely becomes a tropical depression at some point today, with signs pointing to this becoming the next storm in the pipeline.  Leslie, should it be named, will be around for a few days as it continues to push west and then west-northwest.  Computer guidance from both the GFS and Euro suggests it strengthens, with both suggesting that the storm will miss the US as of now.

The GFS turns the storm north at around 60 degrees west, with the Euro taking it over Bermuda later next week before turning it north.  There isn't a substantial difference in thinking over the next six days between the models except the GFS strengthens this storm quite a bit more than the Euro, which allows it to be pulled north by a weakness in the Bermuda High as well as an approaching trough in the Western Atlantic much sooner than the Euro.   We will keep an eye on Leslie (assuming it does develop) over the coming days.  At minimum, surf may be up a bit later next week as it churns across the Atlantic.