Sunday, August 12, 2012

Tuesday's Next Chances of Storms

This week will feature a couple of chances for thunderstorm activity now that this weekend's rain/thunder event is finally pushing away. Tuesday offers the first opportunity with a weak low pressure center tracking through the Lakes. The trailing cool front will approach the region in the afternoon hours on Tuesday, allowing for scattered areas of rain and thunder to fire up ahead of the front.

The atmosphere will be pretty moisture-rich (PWAT's are over 1.50" according to the GFS on Tuesday afternoon) so the potential of localized heavy rainfall does exist on Tuesday in any thunderstorm activity that fires up. However, it does not look like we're going to experience the amounts of rain that much of the region picked up on Friday and Saturday on a widespread basis.

Instability will be around to allow for at least scattered thunderstorm development and it looks like some of those storms will be severe on Tuesday afternoon or early evening, with the best chances of any severe thunderstorms across the Poconos down through Central Pennsylvania and into Maryland.   Philadelphia's best chances on thunderstorms likely occur during the evening hours as whatever develops in Central PA moves in.   We're not, yet, under any slight risk for severe weather for Tuesday but I wouldn't be surprised if we get nudged into a slight risk as Tuesday approaches.