Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Updating Storms Into Evening

Update, 6 PM:  Storms are scattering around the suburbs on both sides of the river, with one storm drifting south into South Jersey and other storms flaring up in the northern and western burbs.  Winds can be locally gusty and there *could* be some small hail with storms.  However, the bigger issue is very heavy rainfall -- some spots are picking up an inch to two inches of rain in an hour with thunderstorms as they move through. Localized flooding is definitely possible, especially in areas where thunderstorms have very slow movement.

While many spots have largely avoided rain and thunder today, others are getting drenched. Rainfall in spots has exceeded two inches (the yellow shaded spots on the radar graphic below) and with thunderstorms continuing to move slowly over areas that have received a lot of rain in recent days, some flooding is possible if not likely over the next several hours.

The heaviest rains so far have fallen in three areas -- Delaware, Central Jersey, and in Bucks County -- and two of the three are dealing with flash flood warnings late this afternoon because of heavy thunderstorms over their areas.   The closest, for Bucks and Lower Montco, is until 8 PM and covers an area roughly along and north of the PA Turnpike up to Doylestown, west to Montgomeryville, south to Norristown.  Thunderstorms have mainly sat and moved very little over the past hour to 90 minutes.  Other heavy thunderstorms are in scattered fashion across South Jersey just to the north of Atlantic City and the aforementioned stuff in Central Jersey.

Thunderstorm chances this evening are higher along and east of 476 this evening -- the farther west one goes the more "stable" the air is.  Although a shower or storm can't be ruled out in the western burbs this evening, odds as of now favor northern and eastern burbs, as well as coastal sections of Jersey, for thunderstorms to hang and track.  Heavy rainfall is possible in areas that do receive a thunderstorm but even in the "city and east" realm not everyone will get wet...many spots will dodge a downpour.  Those that get "hit" though, however, will potentially get a lot of rain.

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