With September down to a bit more than a week to go before the calendar page gets ripped off, we're reaching the 60%, even 65% mark in the season. In terms of storm numbers, we're one tropical storm behind the 1995-2011 average for tropical development of 15 named systems and eight hurricanes. That benchmark of 15 and 8 is a more reasonable benchmark to compare to than the long-term averages of 10 and 6 for a couple of reasons -- lack of satellite data prior to the 60's and the current warm cycle in the Atlantic ocean. Within the 'apples to apples' comparison of the last seventeen years, this season from a quantity standpoint is pretty close to normal.
While the season still has a couple of months left to it, the odds for a "hyper" boost to the season's totals will dwindle markedly over the next few weeks as the influence of Nino in the Pacific continues to impact the deep tropics with unfavorable wind shear. Storm development this year has been above average in the subtropical Atlantic and it wouldn't surprise me if any additional development this Fall takes place in the middle of the Atlantic from nontropical systems or upper level systems that acquire tropical characteristics.