Thursday, September 27, 2012

An Ever Evolving Forecast

The front that resides nearby will provide many of us at least one more solid shot of rain -- tonight into tomorrow -- before a potential break in the weather pattern sets up for about 48 hours. Note the word potential -- it's not a lock (yet) but confidence is increasing that the next disturbance in the pipeline provides enough push on the cool front to bring us a nice start to the weekend.

First, tonight and tomorrow -- the next disturbance in the pipeline is in the Ohio Valley this morning and is pushing east and northeast.  Modeling is intensifying this disturbance tonight as it moves through Pennsylvania, bringing a round of moderate to perhaps heavy rain with it.  Odds favor the rain falling along and northwest of I-295 in New Jersey -- which means that the southern parts of the region may miss out on this event. 

The potential exists with the disturbance that some heavy rain falls with it as it moves through -- best chances would reside in the Poconos and across Northern Pennsylvania near the track of the developing low along that wave...although models vary a bit on placement of the heavier rain (the NAM, for instance, brings it across the northern and western burbs).  Most of this would fall after 10 or 11 PM tonight and through the early morning hours, with rain tapering off during the morning rush hour.   In the heaviest bands of rain, one could pick up an inch plus of rain.

This disturbance, assuming it ends up a bit more amplified as the models are predicting, will help pull the frontal boundary far enough south that we get into a decent Friday night through early Sunday timeframe at this point.  The front's position looks to slide far enough south that the city and points north will likely have nice weather and it should be ok for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches, if not nice.  The next disturbance will be from mid level energy that will dig south from Canada and move east for Sunday...spreading showers into the region.

So, assuming this is the trend that finally holds, the weekend at least will start on a decent note -- it may not finish on one but in an ever-evolving forecast we'll keep an eye on it!